2021 First-Spherical NFL Mock Draft 3.0 Primarily based Solely Off NFL Draft Odds
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields warms up earlier than the Sugar Bowl NCAA faculty soccer sport towards Clemson Friday, Jan. 1, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photograph/John Bazemore)
- The 2021 NFL Draft will get underway tonight (Thursday, April 29) at 8pm ET
- NFL Draft odds and props have been quickly altering this previous week with loads of rumors swirling
- See our up to date first-round NFL Mock Draft based mostly totally off betting odds
We are actually lower than seven hours from the primary spherical of the 2021 NFL Draft opening up, and the hypothesis is absolutely heating up! For those who’re after extra opinion and hypothesis, this isn’t the place for you, although. In my mock drafts, I strictly go by what the NFL Draft odds out there at varied sportsbooks say.
These props embrace, however are usually not restricted to: (1) participant draft place over/unders, (2) odds to be taken with picks 1-5, (3) odds to be taken within the prime 5/10/32, (4) odds to be first participant taken at every enjoying place, (5) odds on the enjoying place of every group’s first choose, and (6) first spherical totals for taking part in positions, faculties, and conferences.
2021 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
|1||Jacksonville Jaguars||Trevor Lawrence||QB|
|2||New York Jets||Zach Wilson||QB|
|3||San Francisco 49ers||Mac Jones||QB|
|4||Atlanta Falcons||Kyle Pitts||TE|
|5||Cincinnati Bengals||Ja’Marr Chase||WR|
|6||Denver Broncos*||Trey Lance||QB|
|7||New England Patriots*||Justin Fields||QB|
|8||Carolina Panthers||Penei Sewell||OT|
|9||Miami Dolphins*||Jaylen Waddle||WR|
|10||Dallas Cowboys||Patrick Surtain II||CB|
|11||Los Angeles Chargers*||Rashawn Slater||OT|
|12||Philadelphia Eagles||Jaycee Horn||CB|
|13||New York Giants*||DeVonta Smith||WR|
|14||Minnesota Vikings||Alijah Vera-Tucker||OL|
|15||Detroit Lions*||Micah Parsons||ILB|
|16||Indianapolis Colts*||Christian Darrisaw||OT|
|17||Las Vegas Raiders||Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah||ILB|
|18||Miami Dolphins||Kwity Paye||DL|
|19||Washington Soccer Staff||Zaven Collins||ILB|
|20||New York Jets*||Jaelan Phillips||DL|
|21||Arizona Cardinals*||Greg Newsome II||CB|
|22||New Orleans Saints*||Christian Barmore||DL|
|23||Chicago Bears*||Teven Jenkins||OT|
|24||Pittsburgh Steelers||Najee Harris||RB|
|25||Jacksonville Jaguars||Trevon Moehrig-Woodard||S|
|26||Cleveland Browns||Jamin Davis||ILB|
|27||Baltimore Ravens||Rashod Bateman||WR|
|28||Tennessee Titans*||Elijah Moore||WR|
|29||Atlanta Falcons*||Azeez Ojulari||OLB|
|30||Buffalo Payments||Caleb Farley||CB|
|31||Chicago Bears*||Jayson Oweh||DL|
|32||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Gregory Rousseau||DL|
*Denotes a projected commerce.
Let me make this extraordinarily clear: I don’t consider all these trades will occur. Nevertheless, this was a really troublesome puzzle to place collectively whereas following what all the chances say. You can too learn that as, “there’s worth available betting the NFL Draft!!”
Let me break down every commerce, although.
Projected NFL Draft Trades
- Broncos Transfer Up for Lance – Regardless of buying and selling for Teddy Bridgewater yesterday, the Broncos odds to take a quarterback are nonetheless +250, although they’re favored to take an offensive lineman at +200 odds. The issue right here is that if Denver doesn’t make the transfer up for a QB, then Washington or Chicago must make an enormous transfer up the board for each Trey Lance and Justin Fields to go underneath their draft place traces, which the chances favor for each. Lance’s is ready at 6.5, whereas Fields is holding at 7.5.
- Patriots Make a Massive Transfer for Fields – For the document, I’m one of many individuals who nonetheless thinks Justin Fields goes third total to the Niners. However the odds closely favor Mac Jones coming off the board there. As talked about above, I wanted to facilitate one other commerce to fulfill the -129 odds of Fields being taken within the prime seven picks. Although New England is reportedly having discussions with San Francisco for Jimmy Garoppolo, I can’t see Chicago or Washington paying to maneuver up this far, and the chances favor the Pats taking a quarterback with their first-round choose.
- Chargers Come Up for Slater – The Chargers are closely favored to take an offensive lineman with their first choose, and with so many quarterbacks nonetheless favored to go within the prime ten, Rashawn Slater has to fall a bit, however can’t fall too far. This commerce fulfills a pair props, because the Giants do get a large receiver, and DeVonta Smith’s draft place (11.5) goes over, which the chances favor.
- Colts Commerce Up for Darrisaw – The Colts and Bears are favored to take an offensive lineman with their first picks, and an o-lineman is listed because the co-favorite to be Washington’s first choose as properly. Nevertheless, these three groups maintain picks 19-21, whereas Christian Darrisaw’s over/underneath is ready at 15.5. Arizona as additionally closely favored to take a nook with their first choose, however after Jaycee Horn comes off the board, Greg Newsome II is the nook with the following lowest over/underneath at 24.5.
- Bears Transfer Again and Get Jenkins – To keep away from Jaelan Phillips sliding too removed from his 19.5 draft place over/underneath, I wanted to convey the Jets up just a few spots. This commerce additionally permits Teven Jenkins to be taken a lot nearer to his over/underneath, which is ready at 24.5 with the underneath favored at -134.
- Saints and Titans Swap Firsts – Tennessee has some flexibility of their first choose, with each broad receiver and nook having brief odds. With the no extra broad receivers or corners (as soon as Greg Newsome II is taken one choose earlier than them) hovering round this choose, it makes plenty of sense for the Titans to maneuver again a handful of spots.
- Falcons Come Again Up Into First for Ojulari – as a result of no groups selecting between 25-30 being favored to take a linebacker with their first choose, Azeez Ojulari fell a bit of previous his 25.5 over/underneath. However Atlanta is in determined want of some pass-rushing assist, and it’s not too large of a bounce to get from 35 to 29. This additionally permits Inexperienced Bay to nonetheless take a large receiver with their first choose, whereas not shoehorning one other pass-catcher into the primary spherical who isn’t at present favored to be there.
You’ll discover the main variations between the final mock and present under.
Main Adjustments from Mock Draft 2.0
- Zaven Collins strikes from 29 to 19 – In my final mock, I had Collins going twenty ninth to the Packers, however his draft place over/underneath has lowered to 25.5 with the underneath favored at -117. Washington is favored to take both an offensive lineman or linebacker with their first choose, and I additionally wanted to get Jamin Davis off the board within the first spherical.
- Teven Jenkins falls from 19 to 23 – this isn’t an enormous drop, however Jenkins’ over/underneath is 24.5 with the underneath favored at -134. As a way to fulfill many different props, we needed to bump him down just a few spots.
- Najee Harris rises to 24 – I had the Steelers buying and selling again to twenty-eight to take Harris in my 2.0 mock, however the Bama working again has now seen his over/underneath decrease to 24.5, proper in step with Pittsburgh’s choose.
- Jamin Davis falls from 20 to 26 – Similar to above, I had the Browns taking Jamin Davis in my final mock, however they had been shifting as much as 20 to take action. With Davis’ over/underneath falling to 26.5 now, Cleveland can keep put and nonetheless get their man.
- Caleb Farley continues to fall – in my first mock Farley was going 16 to the Cardinals. However his over/underneath has steadily fallen over the previous few weeks as a result of considerations over his again harm. Within the final one I did, he got here off the board at 22 to the Titans, however has now seen his over/underneath land at 27.5.
- Elijah Moore, Jayson Oweh transfer into the primary spherical – Elijah Moore went from plus odds to be picked within the first spherical to now a heavy favourite at -335 odds. His over/underneath is ready at 26.5 with the over favored at -125. I initially had Oweh going within the first spherical in my 1.0, however his odds pale when placing collectively 2.0. He’s now again to -155 odds to be taken within the first spherical and could be a pleasant slot in Baltimore.
- Kadarius Toney and Asante Samuel Jr fall out of first spherical – final week, Toney was the broad receiver going late within the first spherical, in response to the chances. However his over/underneath has grown to 33.5, and though the underneath is favored at -150, there are too many different gamers with higher odds than him to go within the first spherical. Asante Samuel Jr has additionally seen his draft place over/underneath fade, touchdown at 35.5.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus in the direction of numbers, particularly odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD’s Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD’s rating predictor, SBD Sharp, and his personal mannequin for calculating NFL SOS, amongst different merchandise.