2021 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

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Kyle Pitts stiff arms defender

Florida tight finish Kyle Pitts (84) tires to get previous Georgia defensive again Lewis Cine (16) after a reception through the first half of an NCAA school soccer recreation, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Picture/John Raoux)

  • Sportsbooks proceed updating their 2021 NFL Draft odds and props
  • Kyle Pitts’ inventory continues to rise main as much as the NFL Draft, scheduled for Thursday, April 29
  • Take a look at our newest NFL Mock Draft (2.0) primarily based off nothing however these betting odds

One week from now, the Jacksonville Jaguars will formally make Trevor Lawrence the first-overall choose within the 2021 NFL Draft (Thursday, April 29). In case you assume there’s any doubt on this occurring, you have to be working to the NFL Draft odds at a authorized sportsbook in your state.

This isn’t the place the place we’re doubting the percentages, nevertheless. 9 days in the past, I rounded up all the percentages and props for the NFL Draft, and used them to piece collectively the puzzle that’s an NFL Mock Draft. The 1.0 model of the mock draft was correct then, however the odds have modified considerably.

So right here we’re once more, utilizing the a whole bunch of props to unravel this 32-piece puzzle. The props used embrace however are usually not restricted to: (1) odds to be chosen with picks 1-4, (2) odds to be a high 5/10 choose, (3) participant draft place over/unders, (4) odds to be chosen within the first spherical, (5) odds on whether or not every staff will go offense or protection with their first (and typically second) choose, (6) odds on actual enjoying place of every staff’s first choose, (7) odds to be the primary participant drafted at every enjoying place, and (8) over/unders on variety of gamers drafted at every enjoying place within the first spherical.

That is what I’ve provide you with:

2021 NFL Mock Draft 2.0

Decide Workforce Participant Place
1 Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence QB
2 New York Jets Zach Wilson QB
3 San Francisco 49ers Mac Jones QB
4 Atlanta Falcons Kyle Pitts TE
5 Denver Broncos* Justin Fields QB
6 Miami Dolphins Ja’Marr Chase WR
7 New England Patriots* Trey Lance QB
8 Carolina Panthers Penei Sewell OT
9 Cincinnati Bengals* Rashawn Slater OT
10 Dallas Cowboys Patrick Surtain II CB
11 New York Giants Jaylen Waddle WR
12 Philadelphia Eagles DeVonta Smith WR
13 Arizona Cardinals* Jaycee Horn CB
14 Minnesota Vikings Christian Darrisaw OT
15 Detroit Lions* Micah Parsons LB
16 Los Angeles Chargers* Alijah Vera-Tucker OL
17 Las Vegas Raiders Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB
18 Miami Dolphins Kwity Paye EDGE
19 Washington Soccer Workforce Teven Jenkins OT
20 Cleveland Browns* Jamin Davis LB
21 Indianapolis Colts Jaelan Phillips EDGE
22 Tennessee Titans Caleb Farley CB
23 New York Jets Greg Newsome II CB
24 New Orleans Saints* Christian Barmore DL
25 Jacksonville Jaguars Trevon Moehrig-Woodard S
26 Atlanta Falcons* Azeez Ojulari EDGE
27 Baltimore Ravens Rashod Bateman WR
28 Pittsburgh Steelers* Najee Harris RB
29 Inexperienced Bay Packers Zaven Collins LB
30 Buffalo Payments Asante Samuel Jr CB
31 Chicago Bears* Kadarius Toney CB
32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gregory Rousseau EDGE

*Denotes a projected commerce.

Earlier than I get into justifying all of this, understand that I don’t assume all of those trades will occur. The trades had been manufactured to comply with as many favored outcomes as attainable. The truth that I needed to create so many trades signifies that there’s numerous methods you may expose some sportsbooks with their NFL Draft odds.

Projected NFL Draft Trades

  1. Broncos transfer as much as #5 for Fields – As I stated within the 1.0 model, I’m not overly assured within the Broncos giving up the picks to make a transfer this far up the board. Nevertheless, the percentages favor Denver taking a quarterback with their first choose, and Justin Fields continues to be closely favored to be a high 5 choose. Fields was even favored to be the third total choose earlier this week, however Mac Jones has taken over once more in these odds. The Falcons, in fact, might take him at 4, however the odds now favor Kyle Pitts being taken with the fourth total choose. So to make issues work, I needed to get Cincinnati out of there, since there’s no manner they take a QB with this choose.
  2. Patriots transfer up for QB of the long run – I had this actual commerce occurring 9 days in the past, and Trey Lance’s draft place stays at 6.5. The underneath is favored, however Ja’Marr Chase’s draft place is ready at 5.5, so I needed to bump Lance down a choose. With the numerous wants the Lions have proper now, it doesn’t make sense for them to take a quarterback with this choose. Detroit would profit from buying extra early picks on this draft.
  3. Cardinals and Chargers swap picks – The Chargers are in an ideal place to draft an offensive lineman at 13, and the percentages closely favor them addressing that want with their first choose. Nevertheless, Jaycee Horn is predicted to return off the board earlier than the very best offensive lineman remaining (Christian Darrisaw). This implies one other commerce must be made, and the Cardinals are the proper match. Arizona actually wants some assist at CB.
  4. Bears transfer again twice in first spherical – That is the place issues acquired messy. Primarily based off the percentages, the Bears are positively going offense with their first choose, particularly offensive line or huge receiver. Nevertheless, there aren’t sufficient offensive lineman favored to go within the first spherical. Even Teven Jenkins, whose draft place over/underneath is ready at 26.5, is coming off the board sooner than the percentages recommend, just because Washington is closely favored to handle their OL wants.  Additionally, as soon as we get via the highest three receivers (Chase, Smith, and Waddle), Rashod Bateman is the subsequent one up, however his over/underneath is ready at 26.5 with the over listed at -148 odds. So I needed to get the Bears out of 20. I’ve the Browns buying and selling up for Jamin Davis, after which Chicago transferring down once more, this time to 31 to pick out Kadarius Toney. On this mock, Atlanta will make two strikes to rise up to 26, first buying and selling with the Chiefs to get to 31, then with the Bears to get to 26 for some much-needed assistance on the sting.
  5. Saints and Steelers commerce – Though I feel it’s a horrible concept, the percentages now favor the Steelers taking a working again with their first choose. Nevertheless, 24 is just a little too early for Najee Harris, whose over/underneath is ready at 29.5. The Saints are the one staff that sportsbooks don’t actually have any beat on what place they’ll deal with with their first choose. All of huge receiver, nook, and defensive position are co-favorites. Christian Barmore, whose over/underneath is at the moment 23.5 with the over set at -130 odds, would offer New Orleans with a pleasant inside presence on their defensive position.

Once more, these trades are usually not all going to occur. So take a protracted take a look at the place issues acquired messy on this mock and use that to your benefit on the sportsbooks.

Main Modifications from Mock Draft 1.0

  • Jaylen Waddle comes off the board earlier than DeVonta Smith – this one appears just a little loopy to me, however the odds now favor Waddle being chosen earlier than former teammate and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. It’s a easy swap between the 2 at 11 and 12, however a swap I didn’t count on to be making.
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker strikes from 24 to 16 – 9 days in the past, Vera-Tucker’s draft place over/underneath was listed as excessive as 24.5. His line has now moved to as little as 15.5 as there are numerous groups on the lookout for offensive linemen early within the draft.
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah goes from 29 to 17 – we didn’t have a draft place over/underneath for Owusu-Koramoah 9 days in the past, and odds of him going within the first spherical weren’t that favorable. His over/underneath has now come out at 19.5 with Micah Parsons’ over/underneath settling in round 13.5. Parsons is closely favored to be the primary linebacker taken, however the Notre Dame product is one other highly-coveted playmaker on the defensive aspect of the ball.
  • Farley falls from 16 to 22 – two months in the past, Caleb Farley was favored to be the primary nook taken within the draft. His inventory has continued to fall, although, as his draft place over/underneath has fallen to 21.5 with the over barely favored at -114. 
  • Moehrig-Woodard goes from 17 to 25 – 9 days in the past, the Raiders had been favored to take a security with their first choose, and Trevon Moehrig-Woodard is the one security anticipated to return off the board within the first spherical. Moehrig-Woodard’s draft place over/underneath has fallen to 26.5 now.
  • Radunz, Eichenberg, Oweh, Marshall Jr, and Tryon all fall out of the primary spherical – in our first mock, we had Radunz going nineteenth to the Soccer Workforce and Eichenberg going twenty first to the Colts. On the time, each had been closely favored to take offensive linemen with their first picks, and the entire variety of offensive linemen taken within the first spherical was greater. All of Jayson Oweh, Terrace Marshall Jr, and Joe Tryon had been coming off the board fairly late within the first version, however the odds to be taken within the first spherical being launched this week have pushed all of them out.
  • Jamin Davis, Christian Barmore, Zaven Collins, Kadarius Toney, and Asante Samuel Jr transfer into the primary spherical – with 5 gamers transferring out, we wanted 5 to return into the primary spherical. The 5 gamers above have extra favorable odds to be taken within the first spherical than the 5 from the earlier bullet level. Barmore transferring in additionally will get us over 5.5 Alabama gamers chosen within the first spherical, which is listed at -200 odds proper now.

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