2021 Valspar Championship Sleepers and Longshot Picks


Sungjae Im admires a tee shot

Sungjae Im, of South Korea, hits his ball down the second fairway through the closing spherical of the RBC Heritage golf match in Hilton Head Island, S.C., Sunday, April 18, 2021. (AP Photograph/Stephen B. Morton)

  • The Valspar Championship tees off Thursday (April twenty ninth) on the Copperhead Course, at Innisbrook Golf Resort, in Palm Harbor, Florida
  • Sungjae Im has three straight top-20 finishes at Florida programs, and completed 4th at this occasion in 2019
  • Learn beneath for evaluation of the occasion and our favourite sleepers and longshot performs

The PGA Tour returns to Florida this week for the Valspar Championship, aka the Paul Casey Open. The Englishman has received the occasion every of the final two occasions it was contested, and will probably be trying to change into the primary participant to win a match three straight occasions since Steve Stricker received the John Deere Traditional in ’09, ’10 and ’11.

Casey will face some stiff competitors this week as this 12 months’s subject is way stronger than in earlier years. The Copperhead Course, at Innisbrook Golf Resort, will welcome each world primary Dustin Johnson and world quantity two Justin Thomas, in addition to 5 extra top-20 gamers. That record consists of Sungjae Im, and the South Korean would be the first goal on our betting  card.

2021 Valspar Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Prime-10 Odds Prime-20 Odds
 Sungjae Im +3300 +320 +155
 Gary Woodland +8000 +650 +275
Lanto Griffin +13000 +1000 + 490
Sam Horsfield +15000 +1100 + 500

Odds as of  April twenty sixth at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Im Excels In Florida

For a lot of the 2021 season, Im’s driving and placing have been lights out, however his iron play has held him again. Properly, excellent news Sungjae followers: His irons had been extremely exact in his final solo begin on the RBC Heritage. Im gained 3.5 strokes on method, essentially the most he’s gained because the Match of Champions in January, to associate with 2.5 strokes gained off the tee and one other 2.2 strokes gained on the greens.

The elite tee-to-green numbers didn’t translate to a top-tier end, however he did put up a thirteenth place consequence, which supplies him three straight top-17 finishes at Florida programs. Im completed 4th in his lone look on the Valspar in 2019 and his solely Tour victory got here on the Honda Traditional in 2020, one other Florida observe.

Copperhead calls for precision each off the tee and on method, and the best way Im struck the ball at Harbour City, he’s an absolute steal within the outright market at +3300.

Decide: Sungjae Im to Win Outright(+3300)

Woodland Again In Type

Our subsequent goal is Gary Woodland, who’s flashed some sturdy kind lately after a shaky begin to the 2021 season. Woodland has gained strokes along with his ball placing in back-to-back measured occasions, and completed sixth at Valero previous to a fortieth place consequence on the Masters.

He’s a former champion of this occasion, and tends to carry out effectively at tight, brief programs like Copperhead, regardless of being categorized as a Bomber. He has a number of excessive finish finishes on the Honda Traditional, one other tight Florida observe, and received a US Open at Pebble Seashore, which is likely one of the shorter Par 72 programs on Tour.

He’s gained strokes on method in 5 of his previous seven measured tournaments, and if he can maintain the sturdy ball placing and simply be common on the greens, a top-10 result’s effectively inside his vary of outcomes.

Decide: Gary Woodland Prime-10 End (+650)

Lanto Proven No Love

Our subsequent goal is Lanto Griffin, who’s being proven no love by on-line sportsbooks. Griffin is 130-1 to win and +490 to complete contained in the top-20, regardless of having performed very effectively this season.

Griffin ranks top-15 on this subject in each strokes gained method and placing over the previous 36 rounds, and has completed twenty second, twenty first and thirty fifth in three Florida begins this 12 months. He’s 14th in proximity from 175-200 yards over that very same timeframe, and twelfth in method pictures from 200+ yards. These proximity stats are vital as a result of these two ranges are the place the vast majority of method pictures come from on the Copperhead course.

Griffin has racked up seven top-20 finishes over the past eight months, and for those who exclude his two journeys to the Masters, he’s completed thirty fifth or higher in 11 of his final 16 tournaments.

Decide: Lanto Griffin Prime-20 End (+490)

Horsfield Price a Wager

Final however not least is Sam Horsfield. The 24-year-old Englishman doesn’t have a ton of expertise enjoying in North America, however has been on fireplace on the European Tour. He has finishes of 4th, fifteenth, third and eighth in 4 Euro begins in 2021, and has failed to interrupt 70 simply 3 times in 16 aggressive 2021 rounds.

He received twice in 2020 and his present outright (+15000) and top-20 odds (+500) are usually not reflective of his world rating (79th).

Decide: Sam Horsfield Prime-20 End (+500)

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