ATP Mutua Madrid Open – Can Rafael Nadal win title No. 6?


Rafael Nadal swing

Rafael Nadal from Spain hits a backhand return to Gael Monfils from France throughout a Madrid Open tennis event match in Madrid, Spain, Wednesday, Could 9, 2018. Nadal received 6-3, 6-1. (AP Picture/Francisco Seco)

  • Rafael Nadal is the one member of the Massive 3 to play; Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are sitting out
  • Nadal has received three of the final seven Madrid Open editions, the final one in 2017
  • The one different former champion is Alexander Zverev. We break down the chances and decide a winner

Rafael Nadal has extra journeys to the Madrid Open in his profession (17) than the following 10 odds favorites on the listing – mixed (12). And he’s received it 5 instances.

However does that give him an categorical go to the trophy ceremony Sunday?

Not so quick.

ATP Madrid Open Odds

Seed Participant Odds at DraftKings
[1] Rafael Nadal (ESP) -125
[4] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) +600
[3] Dominic Thiem (AUT) +700
[6] Andrey Rublev (RUS) +1400
Aslan Karatsev (RUS) +2000
[2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) +2000
[14] Jannik Sinner (ITA) +2000
[5] Alexander Zverev (GER) +2000
Casper Ruud (NOR) +3300
[15] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) +5000
[8] Matteo Berrettini (ITA) +5000
[10] Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) +5000
[7] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) +5000
[11] Denis Shapovalov (CAN) +6600
[9] Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) +8000
[16] Cristian Garin (CHI) +15000
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) +25000

Odds as of Could 1

Nadal a Shaky Favourite in Madrid

While you have a look at the title totals the king of clay has amassed in his profession in Monte Carlo, Rome, Barcelona and the French Open, Nadal’s 5 Madrid crowns appear relatively meager compared.

He hasn’t missed the event since his debut in 2003.

However he hasn’t received it since 2017.

Madrid Altitude a Recreation Changer

The situations in Madrid are very totally different from the French Open and people different clay-court tournaments due to 2,200 ft of altitude.

Nadal doesn’t discover it notably good preparation for the last word purpose each spring, which is to win in Paris.

He’s coming in with a title in Barcelona, however with out having performed on the stage he expects of himself this spring.

Nadal’s highway to the title is as difficult because it will get. All of the younger weapons are in his half.

No Djokovic, a Rusty Thiem

It wasn’t a shock when it turned official that three-time champion Novak Djokovic would skip Madrid.

Djokovic received the final time it passed off, in 2019. However he didn’t play effectively in Monte Carlo or Belgrade this spring.

And along with his favourite, Rome, developing – in addition to a near-mandatory look at a second Belgrade event the week earlier than the French Open, he made decisions.

Two-time finalist Dominic Thiem has not performed since shedding his opening match in Dubai to Lloyd Harris, greater than six weeks in the past.

There’s an ongoing foot downside. And like many,  the Austrian was weary of the restrictive bubble life and taking part in earlier than empty stands.

So he comes into Madrid a giant query mark.

Many Madrid Newbies within the Draw

Expertise helps in Madrid, given the distinctive situations.

However so many gamers within the draw – high quality top-30 gamers, gamers with at the very least an outdoor shot on the title – have by no means performed it.

Making their main-draw debuts in 2021 will likely be: No. 7 Andrey Rublev, No.  10 Matteo Berrettini, No. 18 Jannik Sinner, No. 22 Cristian Garin, No. 24 Casper Ruud and No. 27 Aslan Karatsev.

ATP Madrid Open Contenders – Greatest Earlier Outcomes

Participant Journeys to Madrid Greatest End result
Rafael Nadal 17 W (2005, ’10, ’13, ’14 & ’17)
Stefanos Tsitsipas 2 F 2019
Dominic Thiem 5 F 2017 & 2018
Andrey Rublev Debut N/A
Aslan Karatsev Debut N/A
Daniil Medvedev 2 1R 2018 & 2019
Jannik Sinner Debut N/A
Alexander Zverev 3 W 2018

What About Aslan?

Karatsev is coming off a titanic victory over Djokovic on the Serb’s residence event in Belgrade.

After that three-hour, 26-minute marathon the earlier night time, he didn’t have a lot left for the ultimate the following day in opposition to Matteo Berrettini.

However you’ll be able to’t rule him out of a deep run in Madrid in faster situations, even with Tsitsipas in his quarter.

Earlier ATP Madrid Open Winners and Finalists

Yr Champion Finalist
2020 Not Held N/A
2019 [1] Novak Djokovic [8] Stefanos Tsitsipas
2018 [2] Alexander Zverev [5] Dominic Thiem
2017 [4] Rafael Nadal [8] Dominic Thiem
2016 [1] Novak Djokovic [2] Andy Murray
2015 [2] Andy Murray [3] Rafael Nadal
2014 [1] Rafael Nadal [10] Kei Nishikori
2013 [5] Rafael Nadal [15] Stan Wawrinka

First-round Matches to Watch

Karen Khachanov (-121) vs Kei Nishikori (-103)

Their 2-2 head-to-head is pretty irrelevant because the final match was over two years in the past. And so they’ve by no means met on clay.

However Nishikori is taking part in higher than Khachanov is in the mean time, and is superb on the dust.

Martin Fucsovics (-200) vs Alexander Bublik (+160)

Bublik received their one assembly on clay and has been taking part in by. In the meantime, Fucsovics has been tending to a knee after a draining run by the winter hard-courts in Europe and the Center East.

Except he self-destructs (at all times a chance), Bublik appears like wager on this one.

Greatest Wager: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+600)
Longer shot:  Aslan Karatsev (+2000

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