Churchill Downs Odds & Picks – Turf Traditional Stakes & Extra


Kentucky Derby

John Velazquez (2) rides Gamine to win the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Dash horse race at Keeneland Race Course, in Lexington, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 7,2020. (AP Picture/Michael Conroy)

  • Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs is far more than a single race
  • The $1 Million Turf Traditional options 9 entrants and all can win
  • The place can we discover betting worth Saturday in Louisville?

The primary race on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs begins at 10:30 am EST. The final race is scheduled to start at 8:30 pm. In different phrases, it’s a marathon, not a dash. Moreover, it’s a doozy of a day of high-end championship racing.

Whereas the Run for the Roses will get a ton of consideration, there are six different graded states race together with the $1 million Turf Traditional. Every is a chance to generate profits. Some are extra apparent than others, whereas a pair function very reside longshots.

Horse racing websites provide you with an opportunity to play races in all kinds of the way. Let’s peak on the card, and talk about some performs price contemplating.

2021 Turf Traditional Odds

Horse Odds
Colonel Liam +300
Easy Like Strait +400
Home Spending +450
Ivar +500
Trip a Comet +500
Digital Age +800
Rely Once more +1000
Cross Border +1200
Masteroffoxhounds +1500

Odds as of April 30

The ultimate race earlier than the Kentucky Derby is slated to start at 5:27 pm EST. NBC has tv protection. This mile-and-an-eighth turf race options seven horses who’ve earned a minimum of half 1,000,000 {dollars}. That’s fairly good since just one entrant has run greater than 15 instances.

Coach Chad Brown has gained this race in every of the final two years. He has two entrants on this version of the Turf Traditional, Home Spending and Digital Age. 4 instances within the final 5 years Brown has gained the Eclipse Award for high coach within the nation.

The Favourite

In a race that’s fairly vast open, Colonel Liam is an affordable favourite as a result of he has answered virtually all respectable questions. He’s contemporary, working properly, and coming off a win.

With 5 wins in seven profession races, the $1.2 million son of Liam’s Map has few weaknesses, although he’s depending on others to supply an affordable tempo to run into.

High Contenders

Ivar and Digital Age haven’t run since ending fourth and eleventh in November’s Breeders Cup Mile.

Towards a really sturdy and deep discipline, Ivar solely missed by two lengths. He beforehand beat Raging Bull in a Grade 1 race at Keeneland. It’s unclear whether or not he needs the additional eighth of a mile that he’ll want to finish at present.

Digital Age acquired out of the gate awkwardly within the Breeders Cup however his earlier two races have been terrific together with a Grade 1 win at Churchill Downs. He’s two-for-two in Louisville.

Home Spending is making his four-year-old debut. Whereas this will probably be his first race towards older horses, he completed 2020 sturdy.

Profitable at Saratoga and Del Mar final yr is fairly spectacular. Dropping jockey Irad Ortiz to Colonel Liam just isn’t preferrred, however not the top of the world. Flavien Prat is an satisfactory alternative.


In a grade one race March 6, Rely Once more was coming exhausting down the stretch.

An enormous rally like that at a mile, and now stretching out and being somewhat bit stronger second off a layoff ought to put him in an excellent place. He’ll be rallying like loopy down the very lengthy stretch at Churchill Downs

Turf Traditional Finest Wager

Each horse on this race can win. It’s a high quality and deep group. Whereas Colonel Liam might have the perfect likelihood, when a number of contenders are viable, why not take a worth?

Rely Once more ought to profit from an extended race, he’s in good type, and somewhat pace battle at any level within the occasion might assist him motoring in direction of the end line late.

Decide: Rely Once more (+1000)

Saturday’s Different Graded Stakes Races

Sprints, lengthy distances, turf, filth, women, guys, no matter you want it’s on the cardboard Saturday. Let’s take a look at every of the graded stakes races.

Distaff Turf Mile

Obtained Stormy and Zofelle ran first and second in February’s Honey Fox at Gulfstream Park, and now they face one another in one other mile take a look at on the grass.

Obtained Stormy has earned greater than $2 million however has not gained in two tries at Churchill Downs. Zofelle will probably be coming from behind, which might be useful since Obtained Stormy might encounter a pace duel with Blowout.

In 11 profession races, Blowout has completed first or second in 10 of them. That is her 5 yr previous debut.

Decide: Obtained Stormy

Derby Metropolis Distaff

Solely 5 rivals are signed as much as face Gamine on this seven-furlong dash for fillies and mares. The underside line is no person needs a bit of Gamine.

Gamine price $1.8 million and has gained six of seven races. Her solely loss was attempting the mile-and-an-eighth Kentucky Oaks final yr. In a single flip races she is a troublesome buyer.

Should you can beat an unlimited favourite there’ll at all times be a pleasant worth. Bell’s the One has a Grade 1 victory on her resume, and 7 victories in 16 races. Her five-year-old debut got here in April, and she or he ran an excellent second at Keeneland.

Decide: Gamine

Pat Day Mile

This mile filth race is for three-year-old boys who both haven’t confirmed sturdy sufficient to run within the Kentucky Derby, or simply don’t need that additional quarter-of-a-mile.

Jackie’s Warrior was the early Derby favourite when he began his profession with 4 straight victories.

After 4 wins, Jackie’s Warrior has not been practically nearly as good attempting to run round two turns. Right now he will get a turnback to 1 flip.

Defunded and Dream Shake ran towards one another in April’s Santa Anita Derby. The winner, Rock Your World, and runner-up Medina Spirit, are within the Run for the Roses. Dream Shake was third and Defunded fourth, and they’re each viable right here.

Decide: Defunded

American Turf

A full discipline of 14 three yr olds go a-mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf. Whereas half of them might win, Annex is rock strong.

Annex is three-for-three and has been examined every time.

Bob Baffert’s Du Jour has gained two straight and final day out confirmed actually sturdy early pace.

Scarlett Sky beat Palazzi final day out, and simply acquired clipped by Annex two begins again.

Winfromwithin and Subsequent are two longshots who’ve a possibility to steal the race early on.

Decide: Annex

Churchill Downs Stakes

Whitmore is a warhorse. The eight-year-old has made greater than $4 million and this yr has two second place efforts, each towards the ultra-quick C Z Rocket. Whereas this can be a seven-furlong occasion for older boys, he gained the Breeders Cup Dash at six furlongs in September.

Profitable the Breeders Cup at 18/1 is nice. Nevertheless. the additional furlong issues. He’s one-for-five all-time at seven furlongs. In the meantime, Flagstaff loves the space.

Flagstaff has three wins in 5 tries going seven-eighths of a mile and motored by within the closing furlong in a Grade 3 occasion at Keeneland in April. That stated, he has precisely one win in his final seven races. Flagstaff is seven years previous.

Taking a look at youthful horses to discover a worth, Basin beat older horses in his first race as a four-year-old in March at Gulfstream Park. He’s two-for-two at seven furlongs. Faucet It To Win blew away 5 rivals in a state-bred stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs in March. Since transferring into coach Peter Miller’s barn, Shashashakemeup has two wins and two seconds and appears able to face extra completed horses.

Decide: Faucet It To Win

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