Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Prediction


Rafael Nadal celebrates

Spain’s Rafael Nadal celebrates after successful his semi-final match in opposition to United States’ Reiley Opelka on the Italian Open tennis match, in Rome, Saturday, Might 15, 2021. (AP Picture/Gregorio Borgia)

  • Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will meet for the 57th time Sunday within the Italian Open closing (11 am EDT)
  • Nadal performed simply two units in a brisk 92 minutes Saturday to beat Reilly Opelka within the semifinals
  • Djokovic was on courtroom for practically 5 hours to outlive his quarterfinal and semifinal matches

For his or her 57th assembly, and first for the reason that French Open closing final October, Rafael Nadal is available in recent.

Longtime rival Novak Djokovic is available in baked.

ATP Italian Open Closing Odds

Participant Unfold Moneyline at DraftKings Complete
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) +2.5 (+108) +170 O 22.5 (+100)
[2] Rafael Nadal (ESP) -2.5 (-137) -220 U 22.5 (-127)

Odds as of Might 15

Dangerous luck with the climate on Friday meant Djokovic, who turns 34 subsequent week, was on courtroom at 11 am Saturday morning in Rome to complete his quarterfinal match in opposition to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

By the point he left his post-match press convention, after beating  Lorenzo Sonego 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-2 to succeed in the ultimate, it was 10:15 pm.

New Day, Totally different Djokovic vs Tsitsipas

With the rain Friday turning the Middle Court docket on the Foro Italico right into a mud pit, Djokovic and Tsitsipas by no means discovered a single dry second earlier than their quarterfinal match was lastly known as, with Djokovic down a set and a break.

Again Saturday morning below sunny skies, Djokovic was a brand new man. Down and out quite a few instances, he someway prevailed.

It took, as Djokovic put it later, “a little bit of luck, a little bit of psychological power, proper techniques on the proper time.”

Djokovic survives nightcap vs Sonego

By 6:30 pm, with Nadal nestled securely, ft up, within the La-Z-Boy in his resort suite, Djokovic returned for extra.

The Serb’s courtroom place was aggressive, his economic system of movement a veteran transfer. He appeared set for a 6-3, 6-4 victory. However…

“I’ve myself responsible for permitting this match to go to a 3rd set as a result of I served for the match, had match factors, made some double-faults on 4-2 within the tiebreak once I was up,” Djokovic stated.

However after dropping the second set in a tiebreak, Djokovic started working.

Lastly, he got here out on prime.

However the full tank of gas any opponent wants in opposition to Nadal on clay is unlikely to be there.

Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Head-to-Head

33 (Might 22, 1987) Age 34 (June 3, 1986)
Belgrade, Serbia Birthplace Manacor, Mallorca
6-2 Peak 6-1
82 Profession ATP Singles Titles 87
No. 1 (July 4, 2011) Profession Excessive Rating No. 1 (Aug. 18, 2008)
No. 1 Present Rating  No. 2
$147,820,035 Profession Prize Cash $124,181,960
15-2 2021 Gained/Loss file 17-3
29 Profession Head-to-Head 27

Nadal dispatches Large-Serving Opelka

In the meantime Nadal, who had accomplished his comparatively routine quarterfinal win over Alexander Zverev earlier than the rain got here Friday, was environment friendly once more in opposition to 6-11 American Reilly Opelka.

As anticipated, many of the factors had been brief. Nadal wanted simply an hour and 32 minutes to wrap issues up.

He ran a complete of 983 metres (1,075 yards) throughout that victory.

Within the completion of his match in opposition to Tsitsipas and the three-setter in opposition to Sonego, Djokovic ran a complete of practically 6,000 yards (6,560 metres) Saturday.

The mathematics is fairly straightforward on that one. Djokovic legs bought the final word exercise; Nadal’s legs can be recent and able to go for the ultimate on Sunday.

Novak Djokovic  vs. Rafael Nadal Clay Historical past

12 months Match Spherical Rating Winner
2020 French Open Closing 6-0, 6-2, 7-5 Nadal
2019 Rome Masters Closing 6-0,4-6, 6-1 Nadal
2018 Rome Masters SF 7-6 (4), 6-3 Nadal
2017 Madrid Masters SF 6-2, 6-4 Nadal
2016 Rome Masters QF 7-5, 7-6 (4) Djokovic
2015 French Open QF 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 Djokovic
2015 Monte Carlo SF 6-3, 6-3 Djokovic
2014 French Open F 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4 Nadal
2014 Rome Masters F 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 Djokovic

Nadal the Clay Grasp since 2016

It has been practically 5 years since Djokovic defeated Nadal on a clay courtroom – in the identical enviornment in Rome, within the quarterfinals of the 2016 version.

Even when Djokovic leads their profession rivalry 29-27, Nadal is 18-7 on clay in opposition to him.  Notably, 4 of these seven victories got here in seasons when Djokovic was practically untouchable.

Two of them got here in 2011, when Djokovic went 70-6 and received 10 titles and after Nadal had received their first 9 clau encounters.

Two extra got here in 2015, when he went 82-6 and received 11 titles.

Of these seven Djokovic victories, all however one got here in straight units.

Nadal is 3-2 in Rome finals between the 2.

In brief: Nadal and clay are an enormous problem for Djokovic in very best circumstances. And he has solely ever received one three-setter in opposition to him on the grime.

After all of the work the Serb did Saturday to get there, the spirit could also be prepared, however the legs may not comply with.

Greatest Wager: Nadal  (-220) – in two units (+117)

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