Penn Inventory Stoop Can Finish with Assist of Regional Casinos, Says Analyst


Posted on: Could 4, 2021, 11:50h. 

Final up to date on: Could 4, 2021, 12:43h.

Penn Nationwide Gaming (NASDAQ:PENN) inventory is commonly seen as a play on the growth of web casinos and on-line sports activities betting. Whereas that’s correct, it could possibly be the corporate’s brick-and-mortar venues that assist the shares regain misplaced momentum.

Penn National stock
Blackjack gamers at Penn Nationwide’s Hollywood On line casino in Pennsylvania. A Hedgeye analyst sees regional casinos serving to Penn inventory rebound. (Picture: Penn Stay)

Since hitting an all-time excessive at $142 in March, Penn inventory has been in a tailspin, slumping greater than 39 %. Analysts, nonetheless, stay enthusiastic on the title. Hedgeye’s Todd Jordan is a part of that group, however he sees the operator’s regional casinos driving share value appreciation.

We’d wish to focus buyers again on PENN’s brick-and-mortar operations, which ought to present important earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) upside versus Road Q1 and full 12 months 2021 and 2022 estimates, and drive the inventory again up near earlier highs,” stated Jordan in a Monday notice to purchasers.

That’s welcome commentary for Penn buyers, because the inventory is decrease by nearly 16 % over the previous month. The corporate, which operators roughly 40 casinos throughout 20 states, experiences first-quarter earnings on Thursday.

“We see worth again into the $120s, as Q1 (and past) earnings redirect buyers to deal with PENN’s sizable B&M operations, and a greater understanding of its long-term on-line sports activities betting/iGaming technique,” provides Jordan.

Penn inventory now resides on HedgeEye’s finest concepts listing.

Managing On-line Expectations

At a time when buyers and operators alike are scurrying to get slices of the web casinos and sports activities betting pies, Penn administration wants to raised articulate “their extra deliberate technique,” in response to Jordan.

At present, sports activities wagering is reside and authorized in 21 states and Washington, DC. Penn’s Barstool Sportsbook app is reside in simply Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, with eyes on launching in Indiana and New Jersey this month and 5 extra states by the tip of this 12 months. That present roster of 5 states is mild in comparison with rivals. For instance, DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) gives cell wagering in 11 states.

A bonus that Penn sports activities has is that within the states the place Barstool Sportsbook is working, it’s gaining stable market share with considerably much less promoting and promotional spending than rivals.

“PENN nonetheless holds a aggressive model and database benefit that ought to present excessive long-term market share and decrease buyer acquisition and market prices,” notes Jordan. “However administration must adequately deal with considerations on their name, and we expect they are going to.”

Regional Enhance for Penn Inventory

As Boyd Gaming’s (NYSE:BYD) latest first-quarter earnings report signifies, stars are aligning for regional on line casino operators, and a few of these catalysts are prone to circulate via to Penn Nationwide.

Citing customers with authorities money of their wallets, rising coronavirus vaccination ranges and good climate, Jordan says March could possibly be “the beginning of a significant inflection level” for regional on line casino operators.

The analyst stated Boyd was in a position to persuade buyers that March momentum carried over into April, and that Penn will most likely ship comparable commentary.

“PENN is a pacesetter in most of its markets, so we don’t count on them to overlook out on what must be a robust spring and summer time season for casinos,” stated Jordan.

That’s very important, as a result of the operator generates greater than 80 % of its income from brick-and-mortar casinos. Hedgeye forecasts upside of 30 percent-plus for Penn inventory.

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