Sam’s Teeing Off – 2021 PGA Championship DraftKings Preview/Picks/Fades/Pivots » DFS Karma

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All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Possession projections additionally supplied by FantasyNational in addition to knowledge and traits from Fansharesports.com! Observe @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter!

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Course: Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course), Kiawah Island, SC

  • Par 72; 7876 yards designed by Pete Dye
  • Paspalum greens
  • Bigger greens (6000 sq. ft. on common)
  • Quick tough with brief Par 5s and longer Par 4s
  • Discipline: 156 gamers; High 70 and ties make the minimize
  • Holes with Water Hazards: 6
  • Wind is course’s foremost protection with 10 holes alongside the coast
  • Corollary Programs: Quail Hole, Bethpage Black, Whistling Straits, El Camaleon GC (hosts the OHL), Coco Seaside (Puerto Rico Open), PGA Nationwide
  • High Course Match Targets: Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland, Aaron Clever, Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Emiliano Grillo, Lee Westwood, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar

Course and Climate Notes: Everybody and everybody’s mom may have an opinion on how the course will play, what the climate is like, who’s in good kind, and and so on and so on… mine is that this course is a BEAST (clearly) and will play to a single digit below par rating if winds are even semi-present, in any other case we may see a ton of birdies. I feel that driving distance is a large bonus and if making a tiebreaker I’d use that, but additionally do not forget that for 90-95% of programs on TOUR having an edge in distance is a bonus as effectively so that is no totally different. In making lineups I’d wait until as late on Wednesday as you possibly can as a result of there may actually be an enormous benefit at the very least one of many first two days. I’d goal elite gamers OTT, sturdy lengthy iron gamers, but additionally those that can keep away from bogeys and scramble since it doesn’t matter what the main is or scoring, having the ability to save pars is at all times paramount. I’m pumped up for our 2nd main of the yr and it needs to be an superior occasion with how powerful this course is (particularly the final 6 holes, wow) and the totally different kinds a number of the prime ranked gamers will take to compete.

Onto the picks wherein I attempted to change up the format a bit bit so please let me know what you suppose!

Key Stats – Final 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

So as of significance:

  • SG: Ball Placing
  • SG: OTT
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards)
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling
  • GIRs Gained
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards

Wage Ranges: Performs, Fades, Pivots, Possession


The gamers listed beneath are not my solely performs I like however a number of the highlights and people I discover intriguing for one motive or one other.

9K and Above:

Performs

1) Jon Rahm ($10,500) Projected Possession: 15%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 9th
  • SG: OTT – 2nd
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 25th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 93rd
  • GIRs Gained – 3rd
  • Bogey Avoidance – 64th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 39th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 34th

Final 3 Begins – 34th // MC // 7th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 34th // MC // 7th // 5th // 5th // 9th

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 87th

Notes: I preserve writing up Rahm in my favourite 9K and above performs and I assume I’ll triple down for the PGA Championship as a result of regardless of a down week final week with the irons (misplaced 2.3), he gained 4.1 OTT, gained 2.4 strokes T2G and even with a number of blips not too long ago he’s solely missed 1 minimize since June 2020, clearly has the gap for this course and is without doubt one of the finest wind gamers within the subject

2) Patrick Reed ($9,100) Projected Possession: 11%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 61st
  • SG: OTT – 58th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 91st
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 19th
  • GIRs Gained – 111th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 14th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 6th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 6th

Final 3 Begins – 6th // MC // 8th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 6th // MC // 8th // 28th // 22nd // MC

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 8th

Notes: I say the identical issues each time I write up Patrick Reed, he’s by no means going to pop in a stat mannequin, however he has such an elite brief sport as proven by his SG: ARG/Scrambling rank above, he can get sizzling with the putter, and whereas possibly a “noisy” factor to notice, Reed constantly excels in sturdy fields and on lengthy/exhausting (that’s what she stated) programs i.e. US Opens, the Masters, a win earlier this yr at Torrey Pines, and per his stats, he’s gained strokes placing in each occasion however one since final yr’s US Open and gained strokes OTT in his final 9 measured tournaments… love Reed this week and love the worth/OWN%

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($10,200) Projected Possession: 13%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 24th
  • SG: OTT – 1st
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 66th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 41st
  • GIRs Gained – 35th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 2nd
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 2nd

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 55th

Final 3 Begins – 55th // 9th // 46th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 55th // 9th // 46th // 42nd // 3rd // 1st

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 39th

Notes: I get the love for Bryson with how lengthy this course is and he’s far and away the longest hitter/#1 ranked SG: OTT participant week in and week out; nevertheless, I anticipate his possession to extend because the week goes in, he’s misplaced strokes on APP in his final 2 tournaments and with a 46th place on the Masters regardless of no official knowledge, I don’t suppose his irons had been supreme their both… he’s proficient sufficient to win this occasion and dominate however at this value I’d quite play Rahm/Spieth/Morikawa

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,600) Projected Possession: 18%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 45th
  • SG: OTT – 47th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 42nd
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 30th
  • GIRs Gained – 14th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 48th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 5th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 14th

Final 3 Begins – 14th // 11th // 3rd

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 14th // 11th // 3rd // 18th // MC // 39th

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 83rd

Notes: Rinse and repeat right here… I fade Xander at a serious, he doesn’t miss a putt lower than 50 ft all week, makes the minimize on the quantity, finishes contained in the High 10 regardless of by no means contending, and I’m pissed… effectively let’s do it once more; his finishes have been constant, he’s a really elite ball striker, and his value isn’t as inflated as traditional however I’m going to fade 1) as a result of I’m an fool and need to be simply as soon as, 2) he at all times is without doubt one of the highest owned on the slate and three) if he finally ends up not gaining 5+ strokes placing, his finishes take an enormous hit with how a lot he depends on it so I’ll probability that he doesn’t achieve one million (he’ll and we’ll do that all once more for the US Open subsequent month)

Favourite Pivot

1) Webb Simpson ($9,200) Projected Possession: 9%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 32nd
  • SG: OTT – 56th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 35th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 17th
  • GIRs Gained – 28th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 3rd
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 47th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 9th

Final 3 Begins – 9th // 12th // 28th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 9th // 12th // 28th // MC // 6th

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 14th

Notes: I’m not involved about Webb’s final minute WD a number of weeks in the past as a result of though I don’t KNOW, I simply assume he didn’t need to play and determined on the final second to choose out; Webb doesn’t have the driving distance that’s preferable however apart from a MC on the PLAYERS (which burned me however I received’t maintain in opposition to him since everybody misses a minimize there finally), he’s made each minimize however that one since July 2020 with 7 High 10s in that span and gaining T2G, gaining on APP, and gaining in SG: P in 90% of these tournaments… guys with distance received’t have it straightforward so I’m assured Webb can compete regardless of being outdriven by many of the “prime tier” studs

Mid-Tier Choices (7.0K to eight.9K):

Performs

1) Daniel Berger ($8,700) Projected Possession: 20%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 4th
  • SG: OTT – 13th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 3rd
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 69th
  • GIRs Gained – 13th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 27th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 24th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 3rd

Final 3 Begins – 3rd // 13th // MC

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 3rd // 13th // MC // 9th // 35th // 1st

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 41st

Notes: Setting as much as be chalk, I’m not fading it due to how effectively he units up right here; Berger has gained on APP in 5 straight measured tournaments, he’s gained OTT in his final 8 measured tournaments and is a good wind participant together with his low ball flight/low APEX… so long as he can chip round common (his largest weak point), he’s very dwell to win this occasion and on the very least present some T5/T10 upside

2) Abraham Ancer ($7,900) Projected Possession: 20%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 5th
  • SG: OTT – 17th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 26th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 58th
  • GIRs Gained – 2nd
  • Bogey Avoidance – 1st
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 4th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 2nd

Final 3 Begins – 2nd // 5th // 18th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 2nd // 5th // 18th // 26th // 23rd // 18th

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 32nd

Notes: Extra chalk that I’m consuming however Ancer has been extra constant than anybody on TOUR it appears like over the previous few months with 7 straight made cuts with no end worse than 26th (the Masters) and gaining T2G in all 7 of the occasions and gaining on APP and OTT in 6 of these 7… he’s not a large driver however he hits a ton of fairways, is a good par saver, and might get HOT with the lengthy irons as we noticed over the weekend not too long ago on the Wells Fargo

3) Emiliano Grillo ($7,000) Projected Possession: 9%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 20th
  • SG: OTT – 62nd
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 9th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 94th
  • GIRs Gained – 6th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 6th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 7th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 14th

Final 3 Begins – 14th // MC // 2nd

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 14th // MC // 2nd // 6th // MC// 21st

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 52nd

Notes: Simply the riskiest of my performs but when we go by uncooked stat ranks and we miss placing for a second, Grillo suits this course and is barely 7000; he’s gained strokes on APP in 4 of his final 5 occasions, together with over 7 on the RBC (completed T2) and over 7 at Wells Fargo (completed T14); what I like about him possibly essentially the most is his historical past at related programs with 3 High 10s on the OHL (El Camaleon GC) and a T2/T3/T11 in 5 tries on the Puerto Rico Open (Coco Seaside); if Grillo hits a plethora of greens as he’s been identified to due, I really like his upside and worth at this value and possibly very low possession

Fades

1) Sam Burns ($7,500) Projected Possession: 15%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 12th
  • SG: OTT – 38th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 7th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 48th
  • GIRs Gained – 24th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 60th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 27th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 2nd

Final 3 Begins – 2nd // 1st // 4th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 2nd // 1st // 4th // 39th // MC // MC

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 55th

Notes: I really like Burns and like his sport in the long run however I feel with again to again excellent finishes he may find yourself going over owned regardless of, sure a robust flurry of efficiency over his final 8 rounds, however previous to that he had missed 3 straight cuts then completed T39… I feel he’ll find yourself being fairly in style and I don’t suppose his upside or T20% is way totally different than these round him/will likely be MUCH much less owned particularly with Burns’ propensity to make some massive numbers (doubles/triples)

2) Keegan Bradley ($7,300) Projected Possession: 16%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 18th
  • SG: OTT – 29th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 16th
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 6th
  • GIRs Gained – 9th
  • Bogey Avoidance – 12th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 17th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 18th

Final 3 Begins – 18th // 2nd // 4th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 18th // 2nd // 4th // 23rd // 30th // 29th

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 53rd

Notes: Keegan has performed nice, he completed T3 final time it was performed right here in 2012 and might be the most effective pure ball strikers on this subject… however I can’t play a chalky Keegan; his APP play and T2G sport is insane, gaining strokes on APP in each measured occasion since LAST yr’s PGA champ (August 2020) however his putter stays a constant downside and retains his ceiling decrease than it needs to be… just like Burns, there are related guys round him that needs to be a 3rd or a fourth of the OWN%

Favourite Pivot

1) Gary Woodland ($7,500) Projected Possession: 5%

Key Stat Ranks (blue signifies High 25 rank within the subject)

  • SG: Ball Placing – 41st
  • SG: OTT – 28th
  • SG: APP (emphasis on 200+ yards) – 32nd
  • SG: ARG/Scrambling – 45th
  • GIRs Gained – 91st
  • Bogey Avoidance – 104th
  • SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards – 15th

Latest Kind (blue signifies High 10 or higher end)

Final Begin – 5th

Final 3 Begins – 5th // MC // 40th

Final 6 Begins (or max) – 5th // MC // 40th // 6th // MC // 43rd

Course Match/Course Historical past (Course Match is calculated by a participant’s SG: Whole on related programs, listed below “Quick Details” above over their Final 50 or most rounds)

Course Match Rank: 7th

Notes: I really feel like Gary has semi-turned a nook after a very brutal stretch with 3 made cuts in his final 4 begins that features a T5 and a T6 with a extra constant, albeit not good, APP and OTT sport; I like his capability to hit low stingers if there’s extra wind than anticipated, and as one of many weaker putters, I like that these greens “ought to” be simpler to placed on than traditional Bent/Bermuda… he needs to be effectively below 10% owned and whereas extra risky let’s bear in mind he can compete in massive occasions as a US Open winner and simply must keep away from stepping into big hassle and enjoying himself out of it with a triple or a quad

OTHERS I LIKE: Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott, Jason Kokrak, Matt Wallace, Corey Conners, Joaquin Niemann

Low Tier Choices (Below 7K):

Punt Fast Hits

1) Thomas Pieters ($6,800) Projected Possession: 6%

Fast Hits: I really feel lucky to have gotten the fade of Pieters proper final week, however he struck the ball nice and confirmed he nonetheless has large distance and nice accuracy off the tee; his final 2 begins on the PGA Champ are T23 and T6 and whereas he has very restricted begins on the PGA Tour, and subsequently restricted SG knowledge, he did play Puerto Rico (Coco Seaside) earlier this yr with a T15 end and he’ll be low owned

2) Thomas Detry ($6,600) Projected Possession: <1%

Fast Hits: Clearly a danger with restricted PGA TOUR begins however Detry has been ultra-consistent on the Euro Tour with 7 straight made cuts together with a T9 on the Omega Dubai (a robust subject), T9 on the Qatar Masters, and he had a T13 end on the Corales Punta Cana which is a distinct course however nonetheless alongside the coast just like Kiawah… will likely be unowned so I’ll take 5-10% and be effectively chubby the sector

3) Brendan Steele ($6,500) Projected Possession: 1%

Fast Hits: I’m a sucker for Steele and he’s cooled off a bit with made cuts in his final 2 however a T70 and T77; nevertheless, he’s solely 6500, nobody goes to personal him, and has made his final 10 cuts in a row which is greater than sufficient at this value; he ranks 11th general within the subject in Course Match with success at Honda (T3 this yr, T4 final yr) and I like taking the danger and hoping his lengthy irons are locked in at low OWN%

4) Dean Burmester ($6,300) Projected Possession: 1%

Fast Hits: Does nearly all his enjoying on the Euro Tour, however his final 3 begins over there are T6/T4/1st and whereas extra risky than most within the subject, which is smart given the worth, he has mega-distance as he ranks High 5 in Euro Tour stats in Driving Distance and has performed most of the Euro programs that includes Paspalum greens so I’ll take a danger at close to the min value and low OWN% in GPPs

Money Sport Choices

1) Jon Rahm

2) Jordan Spieth

3) Collin Morikawa

4) Viktor Hovland

5) Patrick Reed

6)  Daniel Berger

7) Abraham Ancer

8) Paul Casey

9) Corey Conners

10) Matt Wallace

My DK Energy Ranks – Generated utilizing 25% Key Stats, 40% Latest Kind, 10% DK Factors Final 5 Occasions, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their High 20 Odds, and 10% Course Match this week

  1. Jordan Spieth
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Abraham Ancer
  4. Viktor Hovland
  5. Daniel Berger
  6. Jon Rahm
  7. Corey Conners
  8. Justin Thomas
  9. Webb Simpson
  10. Bryson DeChambeau
  11. Collin Morikawa
  12. Hideki Matsuyama
  13. Paul Casey
  14. Emiliano Grillo
  15. Keegan Bradley
  16. Xander Schauffele
  17. Sam Burns
  18. Patrick Reed
  19. Matt Fitzpatrick
  20. Sergio Garcia

Betting/One and Achieved

Worth Bets:

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