Tremendous Inventory Now 10-1 Odds to Win Kentucky Derby After Successful Arkansas Derby
FILE – On this Could 1, 2019, file picture, coach Steve Asmussen smiles at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Corridor of Famer Steve Asmussen turned the all-time main coach at Churchill Downs on Friday, June 12, 2020, saddling Drop Useless Beautiful to a win within the first race for his 738th victory beneath the Twin Spires. (AP Picture/Gregory Payan, File)
- All significant prep races for the 2021 Kentucky Derby have been accomplished
- Important High quality is the favourite by default
- By doing all your handicapping early, lock in one of the best Run for the Roses worth now
Most years the roughly nine-month run-up to the Kentucky Derby whittles down the sector, and handicappers by mid-April have honed in on one or two or three main contenders.
This isn’t most years. Between accidents and inconsistent leads to prep races, the Run for the Roses feels extra broad open than in current reminiscence.
The most recent Kentucky Derby odds are indicative of a race the place only one favourite, Important High quality, has achieved as anticipated, whereas upsets and defections have muddied up the sector.
With uncertainty comes alternative. Let’s take a look at the most recent odds, and think about the place we are able to discover betting worth.
2021 Kentucky Derby Odds
|Important High quality||+250|
|Rock Your World||+550|
|Live performance Tour||+600|
|Sizzling Rod Charlie||+1000|
|Drain The Clock||+2000|
|Soup and Sandwich||+2500|
Odds as of Apr 12 at William Hill
Odds at Churchill Downs have shifted following Saturday’s Arkansas Derby. Live performance Tour appeared poised to be the favourite in Louisville, and possibly the tempo of the race was too sizzling, however he didn’t look good. Tremendous Inventory’s win definitely makes him an element.
As a result of Live performance Tour can’t be thought to be an A possibility, even with out working Important High quality and Rock Your World have seen their odds lower. What makes futures enjoyable is how worth can change earlier than the principle occasion takes place. Final week you may have had Important High quality at what now appears to be a discount.
On the flip facet, there may be at the moment worth on nearly any horse who you may make a professional excuse for a less-than-perfect final race. Live performance Tour didn’t must win in Arkansas. He ought to nonetheless run in Kentucky. Did he purposely avoid wasting within the tank for Could, and within the course of make his odds extra engaging?
It’s also necessary to do not forget that the foremost preps are run at a mile and an eighth. In fact, the Kentucky Derby is a mile-and-a-quarter. Roughly half the time there may be rain throughout the Derby. Who desires the gap, would profit from moist footing, or simply appears to be peaking on the proper time?
Let’s break down a few of the greatest choices, and debate who ought to get critical consideration for a wager.
Favorites: Important High quality
Earlier than the NCAA Event the Joe Lunardi’s and Dick Vitale’s of the world debate analytics versus eye check in relation to Large Dance bubble groups and particular person crew seedings.
At five-for-five in his profession, and with a two-year-old title on his resume, it causes that Important High quality would rank extremely for superior handicappers and those that decide utilizing really feel.
What’s to knock? He has seemingly gotten higher every time on the monitor, culminating with a victory within the Blue Grass Stakes, a top-notch Kentucky Derby prep.
Right here’s the difficulty. Important High quality is likely to be Gonzaga. They at all times look good, but don’t encourage confidence. Two-year-old champs are like preseason NIT winners, they don’t typically win the final word crown. Pink sizzling coach Brad Cox has the deserving favourite, however he doesn’t have the texture of unbeatable and even extraordinarily probably. Curiously, the chances point out the identical factor.
Prime Contenders: Rock Your World, Live performance Tour, Tremendous Inventory, Sizzling Rod Charlie, Extremely Motivated
Right here’s how screwy this yr’s discipline is. Rock Your World is an unquestioned prime possibility regardless of working one profession race on filth. So precisely how good was his Santa Anita Derby?
After going two-for-two on turf, his filth debut was a dandy. Rock Your World additionally has early pace, amongst a discipline that doesn’t appear to have a ton of early kick. There’s a lot to love, however the worth is brief for a horse who has raced as soon as on the floor.
An unbeaten horse skilled by Bob Baffert is the system for low odds and a giant shot at successful on the primary Saturday in Could. What about three-for-four and coming off a subpar effort? Live performance Tour regarded nice in The Insurgent.
That efficiency made him large chalk within the Arkansas Derby. Nonetheless, he weakened down the stretch, whereas Tremendous Inventory got here charging.
So do you give Live performance Tour a mulligan? He didn’t want the race, in all probability was trying forward, and went somewhat quick early. That stated, what about Tremendous Inventory? Corridor of Fame coach Steven Asmussen has seemingly gained each main race besides the Kentucky Derby. This horse is owned by his dad, Keith. Tremendous Inventory has two wins in eight races, however is normally shut, and clearly in nice kind proper now.
Sizzling Rod Charlie is a throwback. The way in which Derby horses was developed was to get your toes beneath you, construct some expertise, and peak within the spring. He wanted time as a two-year-old to mature, completed final yr sturdy, and this yr has taken main steps.
There isn’t any query that coach Doug O’Neill is aware of what he’s doing. A Kentucky Derby winner twice, Sizzling Rod Charlie is following the previous however true system. If he takes one other step in Could, he may find yourself within the winner’s circle.
Extremely Motivated ran fairly effectively because the runner up behind Important High quality within the Blue Grass, after a stable third in New York’s Gotham Stakes in March. His lone victory towards winners got here in November’s Nyquist Stakes.
In the event you actually like Important High quality, Extremely Motivated is an affordable contender to win, or at the very least run effectively. That stated, he bought a perfect tempo within the Blue Grass, and it’s unclear whether or not he desires an additional eighth of a mile.
Longshots: Bourbonic, Identified Agenda, Medina Spirit
In the event you predicted Bourbonic’s Wooden Memorial, hopefully you might be sitting on a pile of money going into the Kentucky Derby.
The win at 72/1 got here after a second-place efficiency at PARX, not precisely the massive leagues of racing, in a low-level allowance optionally available claiming occasion. With coach Todd Pletcher and a giant effort final day out, Bourbonic is worthy of a re-assessment.
Pletcher has another choice that feels much more viable. Florida Derby winner Identified Agenda has gained two straight races since including blinkers. He has been a very totally different horse for the reason that tools transfer appears to have targeted him.
Florida Panthers’ proprietor Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Steady normally works with Pletcher and has plenty of top-end horses. One other constructive step in Kentucky and Identified Agenda will likely be proper there at a pleasant worth.
Medina Spirit has run 5 occasions, successful twice and ending second the opposite 3 times.
His second-place end towards Life is Good, who would have been a heavy Derby favourite if not for an damage, is form of the story of his profession up to now. He was second within the Santa Anita Derby, and whereas he in all probability isn’t going to win, go away Baffert at double-digit odds on the board at your individual peril.